The 150th edition of the Kentucky Derby gallops into Churchill Downs this Saturday, with post time set for 6:57 p.m. ET, and horse racing fans are already eyeing top contenders in what’s shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable fields in years.
At the center of attention is Journalism, the 3-1 morning-line favorite, who leads a competitive lineup of 2025 Kentucky Derby horses. Yet, history offers a cautionary tale: no favorite has won the Derby in the past six years, and the last Triple Crown winner was Justify in 2018.
This year, veteran horse racing analyst Gene Menez, known for correctly calling 18-1 longshot Mystik Dan in 2024, has released his 2025 picks — and they’re anything but conventional.
Top Kentucky Derby 2025 Predictions by Gene Menez
Menez, a former Sports Illustrated reporter and handicapper, has a proven track record at the Derby. From picking Super Saver in 2010 to nailing the $5,300 Breeders’ Cup Pick 4, his calls have earned attention from bettors across top apps like TwinSpires and 1/ST BET.
Horse to Fade: Sandman (6-1)
Despite winning the Arkansas Derby and being trained by Mark Casse, Sandman isn’t making Menez’s final ticket. Here’s why:
- Slow development: Took 5 attempts to win a graded stakes.
- No wins at Churchill: 0-for-3 at the Derby track.
- Sire slump: Tapit, his sire, has never produced a Kentucky Derby winner.
“Sandman may close late, but a third-place finish is likely his ceiling,” Menez writes.
Sleeper to Watch: Burnham Square (12-1)
With two graded stakes wins under his belt — including a come-from-behind victory at the Blue Grass Stakes — Burnham Square is Menez’s breakout longshot for 2025.
- Beat Tappan Street, the now-injured Florida Derby winner.
- Shows elite closing speed, perfect for the Derby’s demanding 1 1/4-mile distance.
- Peaked late in his last race, signaling maturity and conditioning.
“Burnham Square’s stretch-run power makes him dangerous. At 12-1, the value is real,” says Menez.
The Analyst’s Mindset
Menez is also backing a double-digit longshot with “the most awesome turn of foot” in the field, and a top pick “bred to improve with distance.” For his exacta, trifecta, and superfecta plays, he recommends checking SportsLine for full access.
“This race is wide open. If you’re only looking at the favorite, you’re missing the real story,” he notes.
2025 Kentucky Derby Odds (Top Horses)
| Horse | Odds | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Journalism | 3-1 | Morning-line favorite |
| Sandman | 6-1 | Fading pick; Arkansas Derby winner |
| Burnham Square | 12-1 | Sleeper pick; Blue Grass & Holy Bull wins |
| Tappan Street | — | Injured; out of Derby |
Final Word: A Wide-Open Field Awaits
The 2025 Kentucky Derby promises not just tradition and spectacle, but true uncertainty — the kind bettors dream about. Whether it’s the calculated favorite in Journalism or the late-breaking charge of Burnham Square, this Run for the Roses could belong to anyone.
Also Read: Journalism Grabs Spotlight as 2025 Derby Favorite; Baffert’s Return Adds Excitement
