The 151st Kentucky Derby is set to run under the iconic twin spires of Churchill Downs this Saturday, with post time slated for 6:57 p.m. ET. A full field of 19 contenders will take the gate in what’s shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable races in recent years. The morning-line favorite, Journalism, enters at 3-1 after four straight victories, but a favorite hasn’t won the Derby since Justify in 2018, and seasoned bettors know this race rarely follows a script.
Grande and Rodriguez have been scratched from the lineup, which opened the door for Baeza, now entered at 12-1 odds. The lineup features several horses with similar running styles, making race dynamics and post positioning more critical than ever.
Michelle Yu’s Track Record Turns Heads
Santa Anita-based analyst and racing reporter Michelle Yu has become a trusted name when it comes to the Run for the Roses. In 2021, she picked Medina Spirit to win the Derby at 12-1 odds. She’s had a strong 2025 season as well, correctly predicting Citizen Bull’s victory in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, Forever Young’s win in the $20 million Saudi Cup, and wins by Journalism in the San Felipe Stakes and Sandman in the Arkansas Derby.
“Sandman features plenty of closing speed, which was on full display in his victory at the Arkansas Derby. However, closers tend to be dependent on a fast pace up front and generally lose ground on the far turn at Churchill Downs.”
Top Contenders, Surprise Fades
Despite Sandman’s recent victory in the Arkansas Derby and current odds of 6-1, Yu is fading the colt.
“He’s a talented closer, no doubt, but closers have to depend on a fast pace up front, and Churchill’s layout isn’t always friendly to that style,”
she explained.
Sandman has raced twice at Churchill Downs before, finishing no better than third in either the Iroquois Stakes or Street Sense Stakes. His trainer, Mark Casse, and jockey, Jose Ortiz, have yet to win a Kentucky Derby despite 10 and 9 previous starts, respectively.
A Rising Japanese Star to Watch
Yu is high on 15-1 longshot Luxor Cade, one of Japan’s top prospects this year. Japanese horses have gained momentum at Churchill Downs in recent years. Derma Sotogake finished mid-pack in 2023 after a bad break, while Forever Young was just a nose behind Mystik Dan in 2024.
Luxor Cade earned his spot in the Derby by winning the Fukuryu Stakes by five lengths in March and also captured the Hyacinth Stakes in February. “Luxor Cafe will probably end up farther back earlier than he is used to, but she doesn’t think that will be a major issue.”
One More Wild Card in the Mix
Yu also noted another double-digit longshot she says has been handling the Churchill Downs surface “perfectly” during workouts this week. While she hasn’t revealed the horse’s name yet, she’s including him in her Derby bets.
“She is including this horse in her 2025 Kentucky Derby bets, and so should you.”
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How to Bet the 2025 Kentucky Derby
With the post positions finalized and odds posted, now is the time for bettors to make final decisions. Given the depth of the field and history of surprises, this year’s Derby could offer serious payouts for those backing the right underdogs.
Michelle Yu’s full picks and betting strategy, including trifectas and exotics, are available now at SportsLine.
Kentucky Derby 2025 Horse Insights and Other Details
| Horse Name | Odds | Notable Wins | Michelle Yu’s Insight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Journalism | 3-1 | San Felipe Stakes | Morning-line favorite. Yu predicted his San Felipe win earlier in 2025. |
| Sandman | 6-1 | Arkansas Derby | Yu is fading Sandman. Says closers are pace-dependent and have struggled at Churchill. |
| Sovereignty | 5-1 | — | Yu is fading, Sandman. Says closers are pace-dependent and have struggled at Churchill. |
| Baeza | 12-1 | — | Entered after Grande and Rodriguez were scratched. |
| Luxor Cafe | 15-1 | Fukuryu Stakes, Hyacinth Stakes | Yu supports him despite odds. Thinks mid-pack position won’t hinder performance. |
| Unnamed Longshot | — | — | Yu says this horse is handling Churchill “perfectly.” Included in her betting picks. |
| Category | Details |
|---|---|
| Event Name | 151st Kentucky Derby |
| Date | Saturday, May 3, 2025 |
| Location | Churchill Downs, Louisville, Kentucky |
| Post Time | 6:57 p.m. ET |
| Field Size | 19 Horses |
| Scratched Horses | Grande, Rodriguez |
| Replaced By | Baeza (12-1 odds) |
| Morning-Line Favorite | Journalism (3-1 odds) |
| Last Favorite to Win | Justify (2018) |
| Other Top Contenders | Sovereignty (5-1), Sandman (6-1), Luxor Cade (15-1) |
| Expert Analyst | Michelle Yu (Santa Anita-based reporter & handicapper) |
